Presidential Superstars

Presidential popularity like that of all cultural icon’s follow an ebb and flow consistent with the culture at large. We are in an age of stardom. but it didn’t just start yesterday! After the death of the 32nd President, Harry Truman was afforded high ratings for his raw courage stepping into Franklin Roosevelt’s shadow. . In Truman he was a Congressman who was thrust into the spotlight ill-prepared. He grew in the post. As he began his term he carried support of over 85% of the people. He was easily revered as much as many Hollywood leading men. It was every decision after the oath of office that saw his support take a nose dive. His likeability was so damaged that by 1948 he was certain to lose reelection.

President Eisenhower portrayed a somewhat Henry Fonda-ish senior statesman-like role, and maintained a higher average of popular support during his 8 years. He guided America through a decade of calm before a radical storm. Still he left office down a full 10% in support compared to his arrival in the Oval Office.

President Kennedy, as popular as any swashbuckling Errol Flynn character, has to be lumped with the likes of Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter. Each saw sizeable support evaporate as quickly as Truman’s. Each faced differing circumstances, were revered briefly, and then reviled as their decisions didn’t wear well upon the country.

President Reagan perhaps because he was actually from Hollywood, was the first of the modern era Presidents to come close to leaving office with a similar popularity. His second term marred the feat ultimately though. He left office with a rating in the upper 50’s after coming to the White House with over 60% approval.

The Bush’s both left office palpably less popular than when they arrived on the scene. Neither were superstar material but made tough decisions and were rewarded for it before being ostracized. Both were involved in wars and the success, or controversy’s surrounding them didn’t help ease that plight.

The only President to buck the trend was President Clinton. Most likely to be comfortable among Hollywood elites, Clinton was put in office with nearly 55% approval rating. He departed with numbers well into the 60’s. This accomplishment is even more remarkable given the fact that he was impeached, acquitted, and had a scandal- driven atmosphere around him form two terms. It was sort of like a bad Hollywood movie came to Washington. It is likely that his popularity was because of the ill-advised prosecution, rather than in spite of it.

With these historical facts as a backdrop, it is safe to say that after taking the oath of office (for a second time on January 21st 2009 because of the overt flub on inauguration day) President Obama’s soaring popularity has only one direction in which it will likely go. Still he is as popular as Brad Pitt. Barring a national crisis, which would have the population rally around the new President, expect the hero worship to wear thin during the first term. Given the nature of crisis’ facing the man, his numbers are likely to be vastly different in 18 months. It goes with the job, but in Obama’s case no one has come into office with so much support since Harry Truman.

After Truman brought the world into the nuclear age with atomic detonations over Japan his numbers were at 90% approval. Within a year after the war’s end his support plummeted to about the same place where the departing President George W. Bush found his lowly numbers on his way out the door.

President Obama should learn from history, and expect the worst. What’s more Americans have a habit of becoming disillusioned with their President heroes. It happened to Truman after World War II, to Nixon after the end of the Vietnam War (and primarily because of Watergate), after The Persian Gulf War, and the war in Iraq.

Perhaps a time of peace like Eisenhower’s decade would change Obama’s destiny. Unfortunately, this is not peace time and the economy is the worst it has been since the 1970’s. It is a tough spot for anyone to be in, but since it is not popularity that is the President’s role, it really matters little. All movie stars fade leaving only their star on the walk of fame. As with President Bush doing what’s right is more important than doing what’s popular, and the price will be popular support. So long as it keeps America safe then President Obama will deserve his star like the other 43 men who preceded him.